Tariffs, Turmoil, and Opportunity: How Canadian Real Estate Can Thrive Amid Economic Uncertainty
Today’s announcement by the Trump Administration of significant new tariffs on Canadian imports has sparked intense debate among economists and policymakers about their likely impact on inflation, interest rates, and ultimately, Canada’s housing market. While many anticipate a challenging period characterized by slower economic growth and higher consumer prices, experts broadly expect the Bank of Canada to respond by lowering interest rates further—aiming to cushion the Canadian economy against tariff-induced headwinds.
For landowners, real estate investors, and developers, the looming uncertainty raises critical questions about strategy and positioning. Yet, despite the potential short-term turbulence, underlying market fundamentals—such as Canada’s chronic undersupply of housing—remain firmly in place. Those who strategically align their decisions with these permanent realities, rather than temporary economic disruptions, will be best positioned to thrive amid the uncertainty. This article explores the perspectives of leading economists on how inflation and monetary policy adjustments will affect the housing market and offers actionable insights to help stakeholders navigate and profit through the storm.
Inflation and Economic Growth Effects
The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs represent a significant negative supply shock for Canada’s economy. Bank of Canada (BoC) simulations show that broad tariffs would “all but wipe out growth” in 2025–2026. In a scenario where the U.S. imposes 25% duties on Canadian goods (with Canada retaliating in kind), Canadian GDP growth could drop by about 2.5 percentage points in the first year and 1.5 points in the second . This implies near-zero growth (or a mild recession) over 2025–2026 instead of the ~1.8% annual growth previously forecast. Export demand would fall sharply (BoC estimates an 8.5% export drop in the first year ), business investment would contract, and unemployment would likely rise markedly (economists predict the jobless rate could approach 8% by late 2025).
At the same time, tariffs would push up import prices, creating cost-push inflation even as domestic demand weakens. The BoC notes that about 13% of Canada’s consumer price index basket is U.S. imports, so retaliatory tariffs and a weaker Canadian dollar would raise consumer prices . Officials expect an initial one-time price-level jump from tariffs, temporarily lifting inflation above the 2% target. For example, Oxford Economics projects CPI inflation could spike to ~7% by mid-2025 in a full trade-war scenario. Most forecasts are less extreme: BMO’s economists expect inflation to rise “less than one percentage point” above baseline (e.g. from ~1.8% to ~2.5% in 2025) due to slack in the economy offsetting some price pressure. Likewise, National Bank sees inflation running slightly above target (around 2.3% in 2025–2026, vs. ~2.0% without tariffs). In short, a tariff war would create a stagflationary tilt – lower growth coupled with higher inflation – posing a policy dilemma for the BoC.
Monetary Policy Outlook and Rate Forecasts
Facing this growth–inflation tradeoff, the Bank of Canada is expected to tread carefully but ultimately lean toward supporting the weakened economy. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that a “long-lasting and broad-based trade conflict would badly hurt economic activity in Canada” , even as it puts “direct upward pressure on inflation” via import prices. Because tariff-driven inflation is a supply-side phenomenon, many analysts argue it does not warrant the same aggressive rate hikes that demand-driven inflation would. True North Mortgage notes that raising rates against a cost-push inflation shock could “cause deeper economic damage and risk stagflation”, whereas the BoC’s mandate allows some flexibility to look past one-off price increases. Macklem echoed this balance, saying the Bank’s priority is to prevent the initial price shock from “feed[ing] through broadly” into persistent inflation expectations. In other words, as long as longer-term inflation expectations stay anchored, the Bank can tolerate a temporary inflation overshoot while it “smooth[s] the decline in demand” with lower interest rates.
Most economists expect the BoC to cut rates further in 2025 if the tariffs take effect. The Bank has already been easing policy – it cut the overnight rate to 3.00% in January 2025 (the sixth consecutive cut since June) amid early trade fears. A Reuters poll showed a large majority anticipating that January cut, citing tariff uncertainty. Looking ahead, forecasters see additional easing: RBC Economics, for instance, projects that “interest rates will fall further” through 2025. CIBC’s outlook calls for the overnight rate to drop to around 2.25% by mid-2025 if tariffs are in place but then removed by mid-year. If the trade war persists longer, analysts expect deeper rate cuts – BMO predicts the BoC would slash rates an extra 100 bps (on top of baseline cuts) to about 1.5% in order to “outweigh upward pressure on inflation” and cushion the economy. Indeed, some economists suggest the Bank might ultimately have to roughly halve its policy rate, down to ~1.5%, to counteract a full-blown tariff shock. The clear message is that monetary policy would turn more stimulative: the need to “prop up a tariff-weakened economy” would likely trump short-term inflation jitters (pun intended).
That said, the BoC will monitor inflation dynamics closely. If price pressures surged faster than expected without a commensurate growth hit, the Bank has signalled it might pause cutting – Macklem noted that if inflationary pressures dominate deflationary ones, policy would focus on guarding against persistent inflation. However, most experts find it “hard to believe that inflation expectations would shoot higher with significant slack in the economy”, as CIBC’s chief economist put it. With unemployment rising and demand sputtering, the prevailing view is that underlying inflation would stay in check by 2026. This gives the BoC cover to keep interest rates low. In sum, the consensus scenario for 2025–2026 is rate cuts or accommodation, not hikes: the Bank of Canada is expected to lower its benchmark rate through 2025, possibly into the mid-2% or even sub-2% range, and maintain an easier stance into 2026 to support recovery. Any tightening is viewed as unlikely unless a wage-price spiral threatened to take hold, which is not anticipated under current forecasts.
Implications for the Canadian Housing Market
Mortgage Rates and Affordability
Canadian mortgage costs are poised to fall alongside BoC interest rates, which should improve housing affordability for many buyers and owners. Variable mortgage rates, which move with prime lending rates, will track the central bank’s cuts. By 2025, variable-rate borrowers could see significant relief – for example, a drop in prime rate would directly reduce interest payments on adjustable mortgages and home equity lines of credit. Mortgage analysts note this could translate into notable savings on monthly payments or faster principal pay-down for those with floating rates. Fixed mortgage rates, while not set by the BoC, are heavily influenced by longer-term bond yields and market expectations for future policy. Those yields have already eased on tariff fears: the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield fell about 20 basis points immediately after Trump’s blanket tariff announcement, hitting its lowest level since 2022. This pushed some 5-year fixed mortgage rates below 4% – a welcome decline from the cycle highs seen in 2024.
In practical terms, borrowing costs in 2025 are expected to be much lower than in the prior two years, when the BoC’s post-pandemic tightening sent interest rates soaring. RBC Economics specifically predicts that “declining interest rates” will unlock pent-up housing demand and “reduce ownership expenses” for Canadians in 2025. Likewise, Canada’s housing agency (CMHC) notes that six straight BoC rate cuts have already brought the policy rate down to 3%, and further cuts in 2025 will continue to “boost…borrowing” capacity for households. Lower mortgage rates improve affordability metrics (all else equal), enabling some sidelined buyers to qualify for loans or afford larger ones. Indeed, the combination of rate relief and recent mortgage rule changes (e.g. expanded mortgage insurance eligibility and 30-year amortizations for first-time buyers) is expected to “help unleash pent-up demand” from those who were priced out at 2023’s higher rates.
However, the affordability gains from cheaper financing come with caveats. Tariffs will raise prices on many consumer goods (from food to fuel), which could squeeze household budgets even as mortgage payments decline. Moreover, if the trade war induces layoffs and slower income growth, some Canadians may feel less able to purchase a home despite lower interest rates. Confidence and employment matter: as one economist put it, improving affordability “on paper” may not translate into housing market strength if people are worried about their jobs. On balance, though, most experts see the drop in borrowing costs as a temporary tailwind for buyers. Even the prospect of tariffs has prompted a mini-rate relief – “Canadians are already enjoying [mortgage rate] discounts” as investors flock to safe-haven bonds, noted Ratehub’s Penelope Graham. In short, mortgage rates are likely to trend downward into 2025, enhancing affordability for those Canadians whose incomes remain secure. This could soften the blow of tariff-driven cost increases elsewhere in household budgets.
Housing Demand and Price Trends
The outlook for housing demand in 2025–2026 is cautiously optimistic but highly contingent on the broader economic fallout of the tariffs. Baseline forecasts (assuming no severe trade war) envision a rebound in home sales and a levelling off of prices. Canada’s housing market showed signs of recovery in late 2024, and RBC forecasts a 12% jump in home resales in 2025 (to roughly 551,000 units) if the economy avoids a major shock. This resurgence would mark a return to more “normal” pre-pandemic levels of activity. Ample pent-up demand, improved affordability, and growing inventory are expected to drive the upswing. Price-wise, most analysts see only modest gains ahead. RBC projects the average home price rising about 1.4% in 2025, a very tame increase, reflecting balanced supply-demand conditions and lingering affordability constraints. Essentially, in a no-tariff or limited-tariff scenario, the housing market story for 2025 is one of “continued recovery” but without runaway price growth.
The risk, however, is that this new tariff battle escalates, undermines consumer confidence and erodes housing demand. Housing markets are highly sentiment-driven, and the specter of a trade-induced recession is “casting a potentially dark shadow over the housing market,” according to RBC Economics. RBC’s assistant chief economist Robert Hogue likens forecasting home prices under tariff uncertainty to “putting a price on a home before an earthquake” – the economic “foundation” is uncertain. If broad U.S. tariffs take effect and start to crimp growth, buyers and sellers may grow more cautious, leading to a standoff in the market. Potential buyers might delay purchase decisions due to job concerns or expectations of softer prices, while some sellers could hold off listing homes in an unstable economy. The CMHC warns that a U.S.–Canada trade war would likely “slow the economy and limit housing activity,” as a recession would cause more homebuyers to delay purchases and thus “prolong Canada’s housing recovery”. Essentially, a severe downturn could sap the nascent momentum in home sales.
Regional impacts would vary. Areas with industries heavily exposed to U.S. exports (manufacturing hubs, auto regions, parts of the resource sector) could see disproportionate job losses, dampening local housing demand. For instance, communities built around steel or auto manufacturing – targets of U.S. tariff measures – might face a pullback in homebuyers and even some forced selling, putting downward pressure on prices. These could be felt more in eastern provinces and BC could be somewhat insulated from those shocks.
On the other hand, lower interest rates could partially offset these negatives in more insulated regions. If the BoC delivers deep rate cuts, it may “stimulate housing demand by making borrowing more affordable,” RBC notes – a dose of monetary stimulus that could bolster sales in 2025 even amid economic headwinds. Thus, the housing market’s trajectory will reflect a tug-of-war between opposing forces: on one side, the drag of weaker employment and confidence; on the other, the boost from improved affordability and policy support. Overall, experts anticipate that home price growth will be muted at best in 2025–2026, with some downside risk. RBC’s base case calls for only minimal national price appreciation in 2025 (around 1% ), and it cautions that “any major economic disruption…could dampen housing demand and weaken market confidence”, potentially tipping some markets into price declines. In summary, housing demand should improve with lower rates, but tariff turmoil could cap that recovery, keeping sales and prices below their full potential until uncertainty clears.
Real Estate Development and Construction Costs
The U.S.–Canada tariff conflict would also impact the supply side of housing – namely, construction costs and new development. Many building materials and equipment used in Canadian real estate projects are imported, often from the United States, so broad tariffs would raise input prices for homebuilders. For example, U.S.-made steel, aluminum, appliances, and machinery could all face extra duties. The 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum (if implemented) would hurt Canadian producers and potentially drive up domestic prices for those commodities as well. Simultaneously, any Canadian retaliatory tariffs on U.S. materials would make imports pricier. According to housing analysts at Deeded, “rising costs for materials—much of which are imported from the U.S.—[mean] builders might delay or cancel projects” if tariffs drive costs too high. In other words, a trade war can strain construction budgets: developers facing 10–25% higher costs on key inputs may pause new housing starts, especially if home prices and buyer demand are uncertain. This effect is already a concern – even absent tariffs, CMHC was forecasting a moderate decline in housing starts over the next three years due to higher financing costs and cooling investor interest. A tariff-induced recession would exacerbate that trend, further reducing new home construction at least in the short term. The CMHC’s scenario analysis explicitly says a trade war would lead to “fewer homes being built,” as developers respond to the weaker economic climate.
Higher construction and development costs could ripple through the housing market in multiple ways. Immediately, fewer new projects mean less construction employment, cutting jobs in a sector that has been a major economic driver. Slower building activity would deepen the economic drag (and possibly prompt government stimulus efforts in infrastructure to compensate). For homebuyers, project delays might limit the supply of new homes coming to market, which could tighten housing supply in the medium term. Ironically, while tariffs in 2025 might soften demand, they might also constrain future supply – a combination that could keep the market in relative balance on volume, but still hurt affordability in the long run. As CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Kevin Hughes noted, Canada already “has not seen the buildout of the much higher level of supply that is needed to restore affordability.” A prolonged slowdown in homebuilding due to tariffs could “spell trouble for affordability over the long term” once demand recovers.
In addition, ongoing developments could see profit margins squeezed. Large residential projects often source specialized components (e.g. HVAC systems, elevators, finishings) internationally; sudden tariffs add unplanned costs that developers might not be able to pass on if the market is soft. Some input costs were already elevated post-pandemic, and tariffs would add costs at multiple stages of production, as the BoC pointed out. All of this means real estate firms would likely take a more cautious stance. Industry stability is still sound – Canadian banks are well-capitalized to handle credit risk, and there could be government relief programs for affected industries – but the risk profile of development projects would rise. Indeed, analysts warn that trade turmoil, combined with an already cooler market, could cause investors and lenders to pull back on financing new housing ventures. In summary, a tariff war would raise construction costs and heighten uncertainty for builders, leading to fewer housing starts and delayed projects in 2025–2026. This supply slowdown, while perhaps necessary in a weak market, could intensify Canada’s housing supply-demand imbalance down the road and underscores how trade policy can indirectly impact housing development.
What to Do: Practical Suggestions for Landowners, Developers and Investors
For practical guidance during these uncertain times, I turn to Morgan Housel's book Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes. Morgan Housel emphasizes focusing on permanent realities rather than temporary events or trends, noting that while the future is unpredictable, human behaviour remains relatively consistent.
Housel’s key insights include:
Permanent Realities Matter Most: Long-term success comes from recognizing stable truths—like chronic housing shortages—rather than transient market swings or news cycles.
Markets Follow Stories, Not Just Statistics: Real estate markets often move based on compelling narratives rather than hard data alone. Investors, developers, and landowners should communicate powerful stories to highlight enduring value.
Expectations Shape Outcomes: Satisfaction (and success) depends heavily on aligning expectations with reality. Developers, investors, and sellers should be realistic yet optimistic about market opportunities and limitations.
Calm Breeds Instability: Periods of calm and confidence can sow the seeds of future volatility, creating cycles of boom and bust. Recognizing this dynamic can help stakeholders avoid overconfidence during prosperous times and position strategically during downturns.
Urgency Drives Innovation: Economic disruptions, including downturns or tariffs, can spark innovation in housing policy, construction practices, and investment strategies.
Progress Is Quiet, Disaster Loud: Positive developments—like incremental improvements in housing affordability or supply—often go unnoticed, whereas downturns dominate headlines. Stakeholders should actively recognize quiet signs of progress.
The Price Isn’t Always Monetary: Investments and developments incur hidden costs—stress, uncertainty, bureaucracy—that stakeholders must embrace as inherent parts of achieving long-term rewards.
Long-Term Thinking is Crucial (But Difficult): Prioritizing long-term strategies, especially in housing markets with deep-rooted supply constraints, is challenging yet essential.
These insights offer a practical mindset for navigating the complexity of real estate markets, particularly amid uncertainty surrounding tariffs, interest rates, and housing supply dynamics. What follows are some practical and real-world ways to apply this knowledge to your decision making in the face of US tariffs.
Applying Key Ideas to Interest Rates and the Canadian Housing Market
1. Permanent vs. Temporary Information
Permanent realities—like Canada's chronic undersupply of housing—should guide strategic decisions rather than temporary market fluctuations such as tariff-induced interest rate changes. Developers and investors who focus on urban land with strategic long-term redevelopment potential will benefit more consistently than those merely reacting to short-term economic headlines. Canada faces a long-term structural imbalance in housing supply. Regardless of short-term fluctuations from tariffs or economic cycles, the fundamental reality remains: housing supply will take decades to meet current demand and establish a balanced market. This permanent truth underpins the long-term value proposition for residential land development and investment.
While future economic outcomes like tariffs or exact interest rates are unpredictable, human behaviour—such as how people react to economic uncertainty—remains consistent. Developers, landowners, and investors should prepare for reactions like reduced consumer confidence or delayed decision-making during periods of tariff-induced volatility. By anticipating these predictable human responses, stakeholders can strategize accordingly, such as focusing on properties in fundamentally strong markets.
2. Stories Over Statistics
Housing markets react strongly to narratives rather than just economic data. If the narrative around tariffs and interest rate cuts turns pessimistic, housing demand may stall even if affordability improves. Conversely, positive storytelling emphasizing improved affordability, policy support, or long-term growth opportunities can strengthen confidence, maintaining steady demand. Following the narrative and rhetoric from federal politicians could be one way to gauge public sentiment as we enter an election. Federal leaders will speak directly to address Canadian fears, and in many ways shape the national story.
3. Expectations and Outcomes
Stakeholders should carefully manage expectations around market performance. Interest rate reductions in response to tariffs might improve affordability, but if the gap between market expectations (robust recovery) and economic reality (slow recovery due to uncertainty) widens, dissatisfaction could result. Investors and developers should set realistic expectations about returns and timelines, avoiding disappointment from overly optimistic assumptions.
4. Calm Breeds Instability
Acknowledging this cycle encourages prudence during seemingly stable times and preparedness during uncertainty. Whatever comes, with change comes opportunity. Being nimble is especially important, as the short-term fundamentals could shift rapidly. However, with big risks come big rewards. Fundamental permanent realities (see point #1) are not going away. And some will come out of this crisis far ahead when stability returns. Fortune favours the brave.
5. Urgency Drives Innovation
Economic stress, like tariff-induced slowdowns, can drive innovation in real estate development and policy. This stress may spur innovative solutions like streamlined regulatory approvals, alternative construction methods, and more creative financing solutions. Investors and developers should embrace the challenge as an opportunity to pioneer sustainable, cost-effective practices. We are already seeing such actions from all levels of government, and behemoths like CMHC. Stay tuned for rapidly deployed new policy initiatives.
6. Invisible Progress
Genuine progress, such as incremental policy improvements or subtle economic resilience, often goes unnoticed compared to dramatic downturns. Investors and developers should deliberately look for these quiet signs of resilience—like gradually stabilizing housing affordability (ie. rent stabilization in City of Vancouver) or steady long-term urban densification—as signals that foundational market strength remains intact.
7. Non-Monetary Prices
The benefits of reduced interest rates or economic stimulus come with hidden costs—such as heightened uncertainty, regulatory complexities, and construction delays due to tariffs. Accepting these non-monetary "costs" as a necessary overhead allows developers and landowners to remain patient and committed, ultimately reaping long-term rewards despite short-term stress.
8. Difficulty of Operationalizing Long-term Thinking
It’s easy to advocate long-term strategies like maintaining investment through short-term downturns, but operationalizing this requires practical steps—such as diversified portfolios, contingency planning, and maintaining adequate liquidity. Investors and developers should set up financial structures and contingency plans that help withstand the inevitable setbacks or disruptions. Fundamentals won’t change, but timing will. Stay agile and stay flexible. It’s the most adaptable who will thrive.
Practical Suggestions for Real Estate Stakeholders
Landowners
Long-term value protection: Recognize that despite temporary economic disruptions, the underlying land value, especially in urban areas targeted by Official Community Plans for increased density, will remain resilient due to chronic undersupply.
Prepare and be ready: Don’t be afraid to test the market, it’s resilience might surprise you. If you’re not ready yet, do your homework on development costs in order to fully understand the value of your land. Leverage lower interest rates to secure favourable terms or enhance property value through entitlements and zoning upgrades.
Strategic patience: Temporary rate cuts may stimulate demand this year, offering favourable windows to sell at higher values, especially if zoning and redevelopment potential align with municipal growth initiatives.
Developers
Cost management and innovation: Tariffs increase construction input costs. Developers should use the urgency of rising costs to invest in more efficient construction methods, explore alternative materials, and adopt technologies to mitigate supply-chain vulnerability. Procurement teams have no doubt already been looking overseas for material suppliers over the past month. That initiative just became a top priority for every builder in the country, rapidly accelerating supply chain diversification.
Government incentives: Leverage potential government incentives or regulatory relief spurred by the tariff-induced economic slowdown. Position projects to benefit from likely stimulus aimed at increasing housing starts.
Investors
Focus on permanent drivers: Orient investment decisions toward assets supported by long-term, permanent economic realities (undersupply and urbanization) rather than reacting solely to short-term economic shocks or interest rate movements. Focus on the key economic drivers that move populations and jobs. If you’re uncertain as to what those are, subscribe below this article and you’ll receive key insights into the fundamentals of real estate growth.
Capitalize on volatility: Use periods of economic uncertainty and temporarily lower interest rates to strategically acquire prime assets whose values temporarily stagnate or dip due to sentiment-driven market caution. Free up your capital and make acquisitions based on the long-term potential. Be prepared for “shifting sands” under your feet.
Balance risk and expectations: Understand that higher uncertainty or risk created by tariffs may enhance long-term returns for investors who remain patient and selective. Focus on urban markets with persistent undersupply, where long-term appreciation will outlast short-term volatility.
Conclusion: With Change Comes Opportunity
The introduction of significant tariffs by the Trump administration has raised concerns among Canadian economists regarding inflation, economic growth, and the housing market outlook for 2025–2026. Economists broadly agree that the tariffs will generate cost-push inflation by increasing import prices, potentially creating a challenging stagflationary scenario. However, they also anticipate that the Bank of Canada will prioritize stabilizing economic growth by further lowering interest rates, thereby partially offsetting the negative impacts.
Lower interest rates are expected to ease mortgage costs and could temporarily boost housing affordability, stimulating pent-up demand. Nevertheless, tariffs pose challenges, particularly by increasing construction costs and creating economic uncertainty, potentially reducing new housing supply in the short-to-medium term.
Despite these complexities, long-term housing fundamentals remain robust, driven by chronic undersupply, sustained urbanization, and enduring demand pressures. Investors, landowners, and developers who maintain a clear-eyed view of these permanent realities, and use the practical suggestions made above, can navigate short-term volatility and position themselves advantageously.
Sources
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Bogdanova, K., & Garretson, T. (2024, December 2). Global Insight 2025 Outlook: United States. RBC Wealth Management. https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-ca/insights/global-insight-2025-outlook-united-states
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Deloitte. (2025, February). Economic Outlook: Calm Before the Storm? Deloitte Canada. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ca/Documents/finance/ca-en-calm-before-storm-aoda.pdf
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McKibbin, W. J., & Noland, M. (2025, February 4). US tariffs on Canada and Mexico would hurt all three economies; retaliation would worsen the damage. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/trumps-threatened-tariffs-projected-damage-economies-us-canada-mexico
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